2022 ATP Finals odds and predictions
*Tournament updates are at the bottom of the article*
With the conclusion of the final ATP tournament of year last Sunday in Paris, the line-up for the 2022 Nitto ATP Finals is now set, returning for the 2nd year running to the Pala Alpitour in Turin from 13-20 November.
The final 8 players are Rafael Nadal, Casper Ruud, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Novak Djokovic, Daniil Medvedev, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Andrey Rublev and the lone American Taylor Fritz, who replaces the unfortunate Carlos Alcaraz who had to withdraw due to an abdominal injury.
The tournament is based on a round robin format where players are split in two groups, each playing the others within their group. The group winners and runners up then compete in two semi-finals for a place in the title decider on Sunday 20th November.
All 8 players have obviously had a phenomenal year to make the season finale, but who amongst them should be considered favourites? Who will ultimately triumph in this battle of the sport’s elites? Below we discuss each player, their odds of an outright win and we will update after every round.
$1,000 Deposit Bonus
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$1,000 In Bonus BetsBONUS CODE: PLEDGEThe groups are divided into Green and Red:
Green
- Rafa Nadal
- Casper Ruud
- Felix Auger – Aliassime
- Taylor Fritz
Red
- Stefanos Tsitsipas
- Daniil Medvedev
- Novak Djokovic
- Andrey Rublev
Novak Djokovic
Despite his shock defeat to 19 year old Holger Rune in last Sunday’s final at the Paris Masters Novak Djokovic is the strong favourite to lift the title in Turin. ‘Djoker’ qualified courtesy of his Wimbledon win and so he won’t be seeded in either group. The rest of the field will be hoping to avoid him their group. He has by far the most successful record in the Tour Finals having qualified on 15 occasions, winning 5 titles. If he makes it sweet 6 this year he will equal the great Roger Federer. It would be brave man to bet against him achieving just that. Sportsbooks have priced Djokovic +175
Prediction: A record equalling 6th title.
Rafa Nadal
For the record breaking 22 time Grand Slam champion there is one glaringly obvious gap in his CV – the Spaniard has never won the end of year finals. What’s more, in 17 appearances he has only made the final on 2 occasions, in 2010 and 2013. So what’s going on? Well, 2 main factors are at play: injuries and fatigue after a long season; and faster surface (Indoor hardcourt is Rafa’s least favourite surface). Rafa looked tired in his defeat to Tommy Paul last week in Paris. He’ll always give 100% but I don’t see him making history with his first Tour Finals title. Sportsbooks have Rafa priced at +750
Nadal lost to Taylor Fritz in round 1.
Prediction: Semi Final
Result – Eliminated
Daniil Medvedev
The lanky Russian arrives in Turin with a mixed bag of results in his last two tournaments: a win at the ATP 500 in Vienna and then a surprise loss at the Paris Masters to Aussie Alex De Minaur. However, his form at the last 2 end of year championships is impressive: a win in 2020, and runner up in 2021. So he certainly feels at home here; his hard flat groundstrokes suiting the faster indoor courts. Will be tough to beat and Tennis betting have him as second favourite at a price of +375.
He’s drawn in the Red group with Djokovic and will face the tournament favourite in the round robin stage. The odds for this match are Djokovic -172 / Medvedev +144
Prediction: At least a semi-final.
Casper Ruud
2022 was a career best season for the Norwegian. He reached his first Grand Slam final at the French Open, where he somewhat inevitably lost to Nadal, and followed that up with perhaps an even more impressive run at the US Open, where he lost in a terrific final to Spanish sensation Carlos Alcaraz. Impressive because it showed that he wasn’t just a clay court grinder and that, in fact, he had the all court game for hardcourts. Will come to Turin full of confidence but fatigue may be a factor effecting his chances. Priced at +1400
Prediction: Group stage only
Stefanos Tsitsipas
In 2018 the 19 year old Greek won the end of year Next Gen Finals, the junior event to the Nitto finals. Incredibly, the very next year he won the senior event, beating Medvedev and Alexander Zverev before overcoming Dominic Thiem in the final, becoming the youngest player to do so in 18 years.
He’s arriving in Turin in good form having narrowly lost to Novak Djokovic in semi-finals of Paris Masters last week, so he’ll be in confident mood. However he is drawn to face Djokovic in the opening round of the tournament and with a H2H of 2:9, Djokovic will be the overwhelming favourite. His outright win price is +800
Prediction: Group Stage
Felix Auger-Aliassime
The young Canadian is in the best form of his career, winning his first four ATP Tour titles in 2022. The 22-year-old claimed his maiden trophy at the ATP 500 in Rotterdam before triumphing in three consecutive weeks in Florence, Antwerp and Basel to surge to Turin.
Even though it’s his first appearance at the prestigious event he’ll be full of confidence. His big serve and powerful forehand will suit conditions. Priceed at +550
Prediction: Semi-final
The greatest players of all time
Andrey Rublev
The second Russian in this year’s event, the 25 year old Rublev makes his 3rd consecutive appearance. His 4 ATP titles in 2022 and all round consistency earned him an end of year ranking of 7 on the ATP Tour. However, he has never made it past the group stage at the Tour Finals. I don’t expect that to change this time round. Sportsbooks have Rublev priced least favourite at +1500
Prediction: Group stage only
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The lone American, Fritz makes it in to the final 8 courtesy of Carlos Alcaraz who had to withdraw with an abdominal injury. However, that’s not to say that the affable Californian doesn’t deserve his place among the elite.
He’s had a career best year with his first Masters 1000 title at his ‘home’ tournament in Indian Wells, whom many consider the toughest outside the Slams; and produced a superb run at Wimbledon reaching the ¼ finals only to lose to Nadal in a 5th set tiebreak. He makes his first appearance at the Nitto finals. +1400
Prediction: Group stage only
The best new generation tennis players
Round 1 Update
As expected Rafa is off to a weak start, loosing to Taylor Fritz 7-6 (7-3), 6-1) in the opener. And in the green group Ruud beat Aliassime 7-6 (7-4), 6-4.
Medvedev V Rublev was the big surprise so far with Rublev beating the match favourite over 3 sets. Djokovic beats Tsitsipas 6-4, 6-7 (7-4).
Round 2
Aliassime beats Nadal 6-3, 6-4, Nadal is the first player to be eliminated.
Casper Ruud beats Taylor Fritz over 3 sets.
Round 3
Djokovic beat Rublev 6-4, 6-1.
Tsitsipas beat Medvedev over 3 sets.
Round 4
Nadal beat Ruud 7-5, 7-5
Fritz beat Aliassime in 3.
Round 5
Djokovic V Medvedev
Tsitsipas V Rublev
Final
It going to be Casper Ruud V’s Novak Djokovic today!
Author – Damian Byrne
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